Selected Publications


CHERIF,S.; DOBLAS-MIRANDA, E.; LIONELLO, P.; BORREGO, C.; GIOGI, F.; IGLESIAS, A.; JEBARI, S.; MAHMOUDI, E.; MORIONDO, M.; PRINGAULT, O.; RILOV, G.; SOMOT, S.; TSIKLIRAS, A.; VILA, M.; ZITTIS, G. (2020): Drivers of change. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 128pp, in press.

VAFEIDIS, A.T.; ABDULLA, A.A.; BONDEAU, A.; BROTONS, L.; LUDWIG, R.; PORTMAN, M.; REIMANN, L.; VOUSDOUKAS, M.; XOPLAKI, E. (2020): Managing future risks and building socio-ecological resilience in the Mediterranean. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 49pp, in press

KIESEL, J., BIENHOLD, D., WENZHÖFER, F., LINK, H. (2020): Variability in Benthic Ecosystem Functioning in Arctic Shelf and Deep-Sea Sediments: Assessments by Benthic Oxygen Uptake Rates and Environmental Drivers. In: Frontiers in Marine Science 7. DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2020.00426.

WOLFF, C., NIKOLETOPOULOS, T., HINKEL, J., ATHANASIOS, N. (2020): Future urban development exacerbates coastal exposure in the Mediterranean. In: Scientific Reports 10, 14420 (2020).

KIESEL, J. SCHUERCH, M., CHRISTIE, E., MÖLLER, I., SPENCER, T., VAFEIDIS, A. (2020): Effective design of managed realignment schemes can reduce coastal flood risks. In: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 242. p. 106844.

LINCKE, D., WOLFF, C., HINKEL, J., VAFEIDIS, A., BLICKENSDÖRFER, L., SKUGOR, D. (2020): The effectiveness of setback zones for adapting to sea-level rise in Croatia.In: Reg Environ Change 20, 46 (2020).

ARNS, A.; WAHL, T.; WOLFF, C.; VAFEIDIS, A.; HAIGH, I.; WOODWORTH, P.; NIEHÜSER, S.; JENSEN, J. (2020): Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts. In: Nat Commun 11, 1918 (2020).

HÖFFKEN, J., VAFEIDIS, A., MACPHERSON, L., DANGENDORF, S. (2020): Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal Flooding. In: Front. Mar. Sci. 7, p. 51. DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2020.00098.

FANG, J., LINCKE, D., BROWN, S., NICHOLLS, R., WOLFF, C., MERKENS, J., HINKEL, J., VAFEIDIS, A., SHI, P., LIU, M. (2020): Coastal flood risks in China through the 21st century - An application of DIVA. In: The Science of the total environment 704, p. 135311. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135311.


KIESEL, J., SCHUERCH, M., MÖLLER, I., SPENCER, T., VAFEIDIS, A. (2019): Attenuation of high water levels over restored saltmarshes can be limited. Insights from Freiston Shore, Lincolnshire, UK. In Ecological Engineering 136, pp. 89–100. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoleng.2019.06.009.

KLEPP, S., VAFEIDIS, A. (2019). Long-term adaptation planning for sustainable coasts. DIE ERDE – Journal of the Geographical Society of Berlin, 150(3), 113-117. Retrieved from

BROWN, S., NICHOLLS, R., PARDAENS, A., LOWE, J., TOL, R., VAFEIDIS, A., HINKEL, J. (2019): Benefits of Climate-Change Mitigation for Reducing the Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in G-20 Countries. In Journal of Coastal Research 35 (4), p. 884. DOI: 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00185.1.

VAFEIDIS, A., SCHUERCH, M., WOLFF, C., SPENCER, T., MERKENS, J., HINKEL, J., LINCKE, D., BROWN, S., NICHOLLS, R. (2019): Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding. A sensitivity analysis. In Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 19 (5), pp. 973–984. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-19-973-2019.

MODHADAS, M., ASADZADEH, A., VAFEIDIS, A., FEKETE, A., KÖTTER, T. (2019): A multi-criteria approach for assessing urban flood resilience in Tehran, Iran. In International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 35, p. 101069. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101069.

MACPHERSON, L., ARNS, A., DANGENDORF, S., VAFEIDIS, A. JENSEN, J.(2019): A Stochastic Extreme Sea Level Model for the German Baltic Sea Coast. In J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 124 (3), pp. 2054–2071. DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014718.

FANG, J., LINCKE, D., BROWN, S., NICHOLLS, R., WOLFF, C., MERKENS, J., HINKEL, J., VAFEIDIS, A., SHI, P., LIU, M. (2019): Coastal flood risks in China through the 21st century – An application of DIVA. Science of The Total Environment. 704. 135311. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135311.

VAFEIDIS, A., SCHUERCH, M., WOLFF, C., SPENCER, T., MERKENS, J., HINKEL, J., LINCKE, D., BROWN, S., NICHOLLS, R. (2018). Water-level attenuation in broad-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 1-19. 10.5194/nhess-2018-359.

KOERTH, J., MASSMANN, F., DITTMANN, S. (2019). Community-based adaptation to climate change in Schleswig-Holstein: Challenges and opportunities. Standort. 43. 10.1007/s00548-019-00602-4.

KUMBIER, K., CARVALHO, R., VAFEIDIS, A., COLIN, W.(2019). Comparing static and dynamic flood models in estuarine environments: A case study from south-east Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research. 10.1071/MF18239.


MERKENS, J.-L., VAFEIDIS, A. (2018): Using Information on Settlement Patterns to Improve the Spatial Distribution of Population in Coastal Impact Assessments. Sustainability 10(9):3170. doi:10.3390/su10093170

REIMANN, L., VAFEIDIS, A.T., BROWN, S., HINKEL, J., TOL, R.S.J. (2018): Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. In: Nature Communications 9, 4161. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-06645-9.

SCHUERCH, M., SPENCER, T., TEMMERMAN, S., KIRWAN, M., WOLFF, C., LINCKE, D., MCOWEN, C., PICKERING, M., REEF, R., VAFEIDIS, A., HINKEL, J., NICHOLLS, R. and S. BROWN (2018): Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise. In: Nature 561, 231234. doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0476-5.


GOUWELEEUW, B. T., KVAS, A., GR{BER, C., GAIN, A. K., MAYER-GÜRR, T., FLECHTNER, F., GÜNTNER, A. (2018): Daily GRACE gravity field solutions track major flood events in the Ganges -Brahmaputra Delta. In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(5), 2867-2880. doi: 10.5194/hess-22-2867-2018.

NICHOLLS, R., BROWN, S., GOODWIN, P., WAHL, T., LOWE, J., SOLAN, M., GODBOLD, J., HAIGH, I., LINCKE, D., HINKEL, J., WOLFF, C. and J. MERKENS (2018): Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas. In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 376. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0448.

WOLFF, C., VAFEIDIS, A., MUIS, S., LINCKE, D., SATTA, A., LIONELLO, P., JIMINEZ, J., CONTE, D. and J. HINKEL (2018): A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards. In: Scientific Data 5. doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.44.

REIMANN, L., MERKENS, J.L. and A.T. VAFEIDIS (2018): Regionalized Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Narratives and spatial population projections for the Mediterranean coastal zone. In: Regional Environmental Change 18 (1), p. 235-245. doi: 10.1007/s10113-017-1189-2.


NEUMANN, B., OTT, K. and R. KENCHINGTON (2017): Strong sustainability in coastal areas: a conceptual interpretation of SDG 14. doi:10.1007/s11625-017-0472-y. URL:

SANTAMARIA-AGUILAR, S., ARNS, A. and A.T. VAFEIDIS (2017): Sea-level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter-Ording, Germany. In: Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 122, p. 2742-2759. doi: 10.1002/2016JC012579.

SCHMIDT, S., NEUMANN, B., WAWERU, Y., DURUSSEL, C., UNGER, S. and M. VISBECK (2017): SDG14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development. In: A Guide to SDG Interactions: from Science to Implementation. D. J. Griggs, M. Nilsson, A.-S- Stevance and D. McCollum (eds.). Paris, International Council for Science: 174-218. URL:


SZABO, S., NICHHOLS, R.J., NEUMANN, B., RENAUD, F.G., MATTHEWS, Z., SEBESVARI, Z., AGHAKOUCHAK, A., BALES, R., RUKTANONCHAI, C.W., KLOOS, J., FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU, E., WESTER, P., NEW, M., RHYNER, J. and C. HUTTON (2016): Making SDGs Work for Climate Change Hotspots. In: Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 58 (6), p. 24-33. doi:10.1080/00139157.2016.1209016.

KOERTH, J., VAFEIDIS, A. and J. HINKEL (2016): Household-Level Coastal Adaptation and Its Drivers: A Systematic Case Study Review. In: Risk Analysis, p. 1-18. doi:10.1111/risa.12663.

SPENCER, T., SCHUERCH, M., NICHOLLS, R., HINKEL, J., LINCKE, D., VAFEIDIS, A., REEF, R., MCFADDEN, L. and S. BROWN (2016): Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model. In: Global and Planetary Change 139, p. 15-30. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.018.

WOLFF, C., VAFEIDIS, A.T., LINCKE, D., MARASMI, C. and J. HINKEL (2016): Effects of scale and input data on assessing the future impacts of coastal flooding: An application of DIVA for the Emilia-Romagna coast. In: Frontiers in Marine Science 3. doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00041.

MERKENS, J.-L., REIMANN, L., HINKEL, J. and A. VAFEIDIS (2016): Gridded population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. In: Global and Planetary Change 175, p. 57-66. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.08.009.


NEUMANN, B., VAFEIDIS, A.T., ZIMMERMANN, J. and R. J. NICHOLLS (2015): Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment. In: PLoS ONE 10(3):e0118571.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0118571

RAPAGLIA, J., ZAGGIA, L., PARNELL, K., LORENZETTI, G. and A. VAFEIDIS (2015): Ship-wake induced sediment remobilization: Effects and proposed management strategies for the Venice Lagoon. In: Ocean & Coastal Management 110, p. 1-11. doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.03.002.

PRAGER, K., NIENABER, B., NEUMANN, B. and A. PHILLIPS (2015): How should rural policy be evaluated if it aims to foster community involvement in environmental management? In: Journal of Rural Studies 37, S. 120-131. doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2014.12.006

REIMER, J., SCHUERCH, M. and T. SLAWIG (2015): Optimization of model parameters and experimental designs with the Optimal Experimental Design Toolbox (v1. 0) exemplified by sedimentation in salt marshes. In: Geoscientific Model Development 8, S. 791-804.


BALLARINI, E., BEYER, C., BAUER, R.D., GRIEBLER, C. and S. BAUER (2014): Model based evaluation of a contaminant plume development under aerobic and anaerobic conditions in 2D bench – scale tank experiments. In: Biodegradation 25(3), S. 351–371. doi:10.1007/s10532-013-9665-y

BALLARINI, E., BAUER, S., EBERHARDT, C. and C. BEYER (2014): Evaluation of the Role of Heterogeneities on Transverse Mixing in Bench-Scale Tank Experiments by Numerical Modeling. In. Groundwater 52(3), S. 368–377.

BROWN, S., NICHOLLS, R.J., HANSON, S., BRUNDRIT, G., DEARING, J.A., DICKSON, M.E., GALLOP, S.L., GAO, S., HAIGH, I.D., HINKEL, J., JIMENEZ, J.A., KLEIN, R.J.T., KRON, W., LAZAR, A.N., NEVES, C.F., NEWTON, A., PATTIARATACHI, C., PAYO, A., PYE, K., SANCHEZ-ARCILLA, A., SIDDALL, M., SHAREEF, A., TOMPKINS, E.L., VAFEIDIS, A.T., VAN MAANEN, B., WARD, P.J. and C.D. WOODROFFE (2014): Shifting Perspectives on Coastal Impacts and Adaptation. In: Nature Climate Change 4(9), S. 752–755.

HINKEL, J., LINCKE, D., VAFEIDIS, A.T., PERRETTE, M., NICHOLLS, R.J., TOL, R.S., MARZEION, B., FETTWEIS, X., IONESCU, C. and A. Levermann (2014): Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111(9), S. 3292–3297.

KOERTH, J., VAFEIDIS, A.T., CARRETERO, S., STERR, H. and J. HINKEL (2014): A typology of household-level adaptation to coastal flooding and its spatio-temporal patterns. In: SpringerPlus 3(1), 466. doi:10.1186/2193-1801-3-466

PAPAIOANNOU, E.A., VAFEIDIS, A.T., QUAAS, M.F., SCHMIDT, J.O. and H.V. STREHLOW (2014): Using indicators based on primary fisheries' data for assessing the development of the German Baltic small-scale fishery and reviewing its adaptation potential to changes in resource abundance and management during 2000-09. In: Ocean and Coastal Management 98, S. 38–50. doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.06.005

SCHUERCH, M., DOLCH, T., REISE, K. and A.T. VAFEIDIS (2014): Unravelling interactions between salt marsh evolution and sedimentary processes in the Wadden Sea (southeastern North Sea). In: Progress in Physical Geography 38 (6), S. 691-715, doi:10.1177/0309133314548746.

VISBECK, M., KRONFELD-GOHARANI, U., NEUMANN, B., RICKELS, W., SCHMIDT, J., VAN DOORN,E., MATZ-LÜCK, N. and A. PROELSS (2014): A Sustainable Development Goal for the ocean and coasts: Global ocean challenges benefit from regional initiatives supporting globally coordinated solutions. In: Marine Policy 49, S. 87–89.

VISBECK, M., KRONFELD-GOHARANI, U., NEUMANN, B., RICKELS, W., SCHMIDT, J., VAN DOORN, E., MATZ-LÜCK, N., OTT, K. and M.F. QUASS (2014): Securing blue wealth: The Need for a Special Sustainable Development Goal for the Ocean and Coasts and for Future Ocean Spatial Planning. In: Marine Policy 48, S. 184-191.


HINKEL, J., NICHOLLS, R.J., TOL, R.S., WANG, Z.B., HAMILTON, J.M, BOOT, G., VAFEIDIS, A.T., MCFADDEN, L., GANOPOLSKI, A. and R.J. KLEIN (2013): A Global Analysis of Coastal Erosion of Beaches due to Sea-level Rise: An Application of DIVA. In: Global and Planetary Change 111, S. 150–158. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002

KOERTH, J., JONES, N., VAFEIDIS, A.T., DIMITRAKOPOULOS, P.G., MELLIOU, A., CHATZIIDIMITRIOU, E. and S. KOUKOUlLAS (2013): Household adaptation and intention to adapt to coastal flooding in the Axios - Loudias - Aliakmonas National Park, Greece. In: Ocean and Coastal Management 82, S. 42–50. doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.05.008

KOERTH, J., VAFEIDIS, A.T., HINKEL, J. and H. STERR (2013): What motivates coastal households to adapt pro-actively to sea-level rise and increasing flood risk. In: Regional Environmental Change 13(4), S.897-909.

NOLTE, S., KOPPENAAL, E.C., ESSELINK, P., DIJKEMA, K.S., SCHUERCH, M., DE GROOT A.V., BAKKER J.P. and S. TEMMERMAN (2013): Measuring sedimentation in tidal marshes: a review on methods and their applicability in bio-geomorphological studies. In: Journal of Coastal Conservation 17, S. 301-325.

NOLTE, S., MUELLER, F., SCHUERCH, M., WANNER, A., ESSELINK, P., BAKKER, J.P. and K. JENSEN (2013): Does livestock grazing affect Sediment Deposition and accretion rates in salt marshes? In: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 135, S. 296-305.

SCHUERCH, M., VAFEIDIS, A., SLAWIG, T. and S. TEMMERMAN (2013): Modeling the influence of changing storm patterns on the ability of a salt marsh to keep pace with sea level rise. In: Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface 118, S. 84–96. doi:10.1029/2012JF002471.

BROWN, S., NICHOLLS, R.J., WOODROFFE, C.D., HANSON, S., HINKEL, J., KEBEDE, A.S., NEUMANN, B. and A.T. VAFEIDIS (2013): Sea-level rise impact and responses: A global perspective. In: FINKL, C. (ed.): Coastal Hazards. Coastal Research Library Vol. 6, p. 117-150. Springer.


BALLARINI, E., BAUER, S., EBERHARDT, C. and C. BEYER (2012): Evaluation of transverse dispersion effects in tank experiments by numerical modeling: parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis and revision of experimental design. In: Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 134–135, S. 22–36.

BALLARINI, E., BAUER, S., EBERHARDT, C. and C. BEYER (2012): Numerical simulation of bench-scale tank experiments to quantify transverse dispersion. In: IAHS Publication 355, S. 12-17. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.

BEYER, C., BALLARINI, E., BAUER, R.D., GRIEBLER, C. and S. BAUER (2012): Interpretation of hydro¬carbon plume biodegradation in 2D bench-scale tank experiments by reactive transport modelling. In: IAHS Publication 355, S. 157-162. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.

HINKEL, J., BROWN, S., EXNER, L., NICHOLLS, R.J., VAFEIDIS, A.T. and A.S. ABEBE (2012): Sea-level rise impacts in Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. In: Regional Environmental Change 12(1), S. 207–224.

PAPAIOANNOU, E.A., VAFEIDIS, A.T., QUASS, M.F. and J.O. SCHMIDT (2012): The development and use of a spatial database for the determination and characterization of the state of the German Baltic small-scale fishery sector. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 69(8), S. 1480–1490.

RÖMER, H., WILLROTH, P., KAISER, G., VAFEIDIS, A.T., LUDWIG, R., STERR, H. and J. REVILLA DIEZ J. (2012): Potential of remote sensing techniques for tsunami hazard and vulnerability analysis–a case study from Phang-Nga province, Thailand. In: National Hazards Earth System Sciences 12, S. 2103–2126.

SCHUERCH, M., RAPAGLIA, J., LIEBETRAU, V., VAFEIDIS,  A. and K. REISE (2012): Salt marsh accretion and storm tide variation: An example from a barrier island in the North Sea. In: Estuaries and Coasts 35(2), S. 486–500.


BALLARINI, E., BAUER, S., EBERHARDT, C., ROLLE, M., GRATHWOHL, P. and C. BEYER (2011): Design and evaluation of bench-scale tank experiments for the quantification of transverse dispersion using numerical simulations. In: IAHS Publication 342, S. 155-158. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.

LICHTER, M., VAFEIDIS, A.T., NICHOLLS, R.J and G. KAISER (2011): Exploring data-related uncertainties in analyses of land area and population in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ). In: Journal of Coastal Research 27(4), S. 757–768. doi:10.2112/jcoastres-d-1000072.1


HINKEL, J., NICHOLLS, R.J., VAFEIDIS, A.T., TOL, R.S.J. and T. AVAGIANOU (2010): Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA. In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15(7), S. 703–719. doi: 10.1007/s11027-010-9237-y.

HOUGHTON, K.J., VAFEIDIS, A.T., NEUMANN, B. and A. PROELSS (2010): Maritime boundaries in a rising sea. In: Nature Geoscience 3, S. 813–816.


NEUMANN, B., LÜTZ, M., SCHÜPBACH, B. and E. SZERENCSITS (2009): Spatial modelling for the development of agri-environmental programs. In: Regional Environmental Change 9(3): S. 197-207. doi:10.1007/s10113-009-0090-z.


NICHOLLS, R.J, TOL, R.S.J. and A.T. VAFEIDIS (2008): Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet - An application of FUND. In: Climatic Change 91 (1-2), S. 171–191.

LONSDALE, K.G., DOWNING, T.E., NICHOLLS, R.J., PARKER, D., VAFEIDIS, A.T., DAWSON, R.J. and J. HALL (2008): Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise for the Thames Estuary. In: Climatic Change 91(1-2), S. 145–169.

POUMADERE, M., MAYS, C., PFEIFLE, G. and A.T. VAFEIDIS (2008): Worst case scenario and stakeholder group decision: A 5-6 meter sea-level rise in the Rhone Delta, France. In: Climatic Change 91(1-2), S. 123–143.

VAFEIDIS, A.T., NICHOLLS, R.J., MCFADDEN, L., TOL, R.S.J., HINKEL, J., SPENCER, T., GRASHOFF, P.S., BOOT, G. and R.J.T. KLEIN (2008): A new global database for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zones to sea-level rise. In. Journal of Coastal Research 24(4), S. 917–924.


MCFADDEN, L., NICHOLLS, R.J., VAFEIDIS, A.T. and R.S.J. TOL (2007): A methodology for modeling coastal space for global assessment. In: Journal of Coastal Research 23(4), S. 911-920.


TOL, R.S.J., BOHN, M., DOWNING, E.T., GUILLERMINET, M.L., HIZSNYIK, E., KASPERSON, R., LONSDALE, K., MAYS, C., NICHOLLS, R.J., OLSTHOORN, A.A., PFEIFLE, G., POUMADERE, M., TOHT, F.L., VAFEIDIS, A.T., VAN DER WERFF, P.E. and I.H. YETKINER (2006): Adaptation to five metres of sea-level rise. In: Journal of Risk Research 9(5), S. 467–48