Impact and Vulnerability Assessment

Impact and Vulnerability Assessment

©2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

Sea-Level Rise - Coastal Impact and Vulnerability Analysis

Sea-level rise is expected to significantly exacerbate the impacts of coastal hazards in the coming years. Potential impacts are expected be significant but uncertain and depend not only on the magnitude of change but also on human response. Our work focuses on assessing the magnitude of these impacts under various climatic and socio-economic scenarios and on evaluating different adaptation options. Central to this work is the further development and application of the DIVA integrated assessment model. In co-operation with colleagues from the European Climate ForumPIK and the University of Southampton we are developing and maintaining the global coastal database that underpins the DIVA model and  are using DIVA to evaluate future impacts of SLR and potential adaptation options in different regions of the world.

Other ongoing work includes the assessment of exposure to SLR at global and regional scales;  analysis of uncertainties related to global exposure assessments stemming from the use of different input data sources; development of coastal typologies and databases for impact and vulnerability analysis at various scales (from local to regional); and downscaling DIVA for addressing specific adaptation questions at national to local scales.

Koerth J., Vafeidis A.T., Hinkel J., Sterr H. (2013) What motivates coastal households to adapt pro-actively to sea-level rise and increasing flood risk. Regional Environmental Change, in press.
Hinkel J., Brown S., Exner L., Nicholls R.J., Vafeidis A.T., Abebe A.S. (2012) Sea-level impacts in Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. Regional Environmental Change, 12(1), pp. 207–224.
Römer H., Willroth P., Kaiser G., Vafeidis A.T., Ludwig R., Sterr H., Revilla Diez J. (2012) Potential of remote sensing techniques for tsunami hazard and vulnerability analysis–a case study from Phang-Nga province, Thailand. National Hazards Earth System Sciences, 12, pp. 2103–2126.
Lichter M., Vafeidis A.T., Nicholls R.J., Kaiser G. (2011) Exploring data-related uncertainties in analyses of land area and population in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ). Journal of Coastal Research, 27(4), pp. 757–768., doi:10.2112/jcoastres-d-1000072.1
Hinkel J., Nicholls R.J., Vafeidis A.T., Tol R.S.J., Avagianou T. (2010) Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15(7), pp. 703–719, doi: 10.1007/s11027-010-9237-y.
Houghton K.J., Vafeidis A.T., Neumann B., Proelss A. (2010) Maritime boundaries in a rising sea. Nature Geoscience, 3, pp. 813–816.
Nicholls R.J., Tol R.S.J., Vafeidis A.T. (2008) Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet - An application of FUND. Climatic Change, 91(1–2), pp. 171–191.
Vafeidis A.T., Nicholls R.J., McFadden L., Tol R.S.J., Hinkel J., Spencer T., Grashoff P.S., Boot G., Klein R.J.T. (2008) A new global database for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zones to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(4), pp. 917–924.
Lonsdale K.G., Downing T.E., Nicholls R.J., Parker D., Vafeidis A.T., Dawson R.J., Hall, J. (2008) Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise for the Thames Estuary. Climatic Change, 91(1–2), pp. 145–169.
Poumadere M., Mays C., Pfeifle G., Vafeidis A.T. (2008) Worst case scenario and stakeholder group decision: A 5-6 meter sea-level rise in the Rhone Delta, France. Climatic Change, 91(1-2), pp. 123–143.
McFadden L., Nicholls R.J., Vafeidis A.T., Tol R.S.J. (2007) Modelling coastal space: A methodology for a global scale analysis of impacts and vulnerability to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research, 23(4), pp. 911–920.
Tol R.S.J., Bohn M., Downing E.T., Guillerminet M.L., Hizsnyik E., Kasperson R., Lonsdale K., Mays C., Nicholls R.J., Olsthoorn A.A., Pfeifle G., Poumadere M., Toth F.L., Vafeidis A.T., van der Werff P.E., Yetkiner I.H. (2006) Adaptation to five metres of sea-level rise. Journal of Risk Research, 9(5), pp. 467–482.

Sea-Level Rise - Coastal Impact and Vulnerability Analysis

Koerth J., Vafeidis A.T., Hinkel J., Sterr H. (2013) What motivates coastal households to adapt pro-actively to sea-level rise and increasing flood risk. Regional Environmental Change, in press.
Hinkel J., Brown S., Exner L., Nicholls R.J., Vafeidis A.T., Abebe A.S. (2012) Sea-level impacts in Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. Regional Environmental Change, 12(1), pp. 207–224.
Römer H., Willroth P., Kaiser G., Vafeidis A.T., Ludwig R., Sterr H., Revilla Diez J. (2012) Potential of remote sensing techniques for tsunami hazard and vulnerability analysis–a case study from Phang-Nga province, Thailand. National Hazards Earth System Sciences, 12, pp. 2103–2126.
Lichter M., Vafeidis A.T., Nicholls R.J., Kaiser G. (2011) Exploring data-related uncertainties in analyses of land area and population in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ). Journal of Coastal Research, 27(4), pp. 757–768., doi:10.2112/jcoastres-d-1000072.1
Hinkel J., Nicholls R.J., Vafeidis A.T., Tol R.S.J., Avagianou T. (2010) Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15(7), pp. 703–719, doi: 10.1007/s11027-010-9237-y.
Houghton K.J., Vafeidis A.T., Neumann B., Proelss A. (2010) Maritime boundaries in a rising sea. Nature Geoscience, 3, pp. 813–816.
Nicholls R.J., Tol R.S.J., Vafeidis A.T. (2008) Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet - An application of FUND. Climatic Change, 91(1–2), pp. 171–191.
Vafeidis A.T., Nicholls R.J., McFadden L., Tol R.S.J., Hinkel J., Spencer T., Grashoff P.S., Boot G., Klein R.J.T. (2008) A new global database for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zones to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(4), pp. 917–924.
Lonsdale K.G., Downing T.E., Nicholls R.J., Parker D., Vafeidis A.T., Dawson R.J., Hall, J. (2008) Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise for the Thames Estuary. Climatic Change, 91(1–2), pp. 145–169.
Poumadere M., Mays C., Pfeifle G., Vafeidis A.T. (2008) Worst case scenario and stakeholder group decision: A 5-6 meter sea-level rise in the Rhone Delta, France. Climatic Change, 91(1-2), pp. 123–143.
McFadden L., Nicholls R.J., Vafeidis A.T., Tol R.S.J. (2007) Modelling coastal space: A methodology for a global scale analysis of impacts and vulnerability to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research, 23(4), pp. 911–920.
Tol R.S.J., Bohn M., Downing E.T., Guillerminet M.L., Hizsnyik E., Kasperson R., Lonsdale K., Mays C., Nicholls R.J., Olsthoorn A.A., Pfeifle G., Poumadere M., Toth F.L., Vafeidis A.T., van der Werff P.E., Yetkiner I.H. (2006) Adaptation to five metres of sea-level rise. Journal of Risk Research, 9(5), pp. 467–482.